Capitalogix

The World Is In $100 Trillion Dollars of Debt ...

The world is swimming in debt ... well, to be more specific ... the world's governments are swimming in debt — $100 Trillion of it. 

via Barrons

To put that in perspective, here's an illustration to give you a sense of the enormity of that number.

via Barrons

The U.S. accounts for just over 34% of that number. Meanwhile, I remember writing about the Republican National Convention marking the moment our national debt crossed the $16 Trillion level in 2012. 

To put the current number in context, if our national debt were divided among individuals, we'd each owe more than $100K ... and if the ten wealthiest people donated their entire fortunes, we'd only have covered about 5%. 

The concept of "Debt" can be confusing to a layman. Most people understand what it means when they take on debt with a local bank, but it can be harder to understand the role debt plays in global economics.

Compounding the confusion, the implications of debt change on a macro level. 

Many worry that our "excessive" government debt levels impact economic stability, the strength of our currency, and unemployment. The national debt can only be reduced through five mechanisms: increased taxation, reduced spending, debt restructuring, monetization of the debt, or default. 

The idea behind our current global debt structure is that if two nations are mutually obligated and dependent on each other, they are less likely to go to war. And that has held relatively true so far. Of course, it's not a perfect system (and it could break down), but it's working better than previous systems (such as the balance of power).

In some ways, it's fake money, so our debts don't seem insurmountable or fatal. Our economy is so reliable that we're allowed to continue borrowing. Debt is an integral part of the economic machine - it can be argued that we wouldn't have money without debt. 

Ray Dalio created a simple (but not simplistic) and relatively easy-to-follow 30-minute animated video that answers the question, "How does the economy really work?"  Click to watch.

via Ray Dalio

The global economy has grown enormously during the last 50 years as developing nations prosper. The average global GDP per capita has gone from ~$1000 to over $10,000 in my lifetime.

So, it makes sense that the amount of debt is also increasing with the size of the money supply required to conduct all the transactions in the global economy.

But, even though you may not need to be immediately worried about that number, I still think it's worth trying to put it in context. 

Humans are notoriously bad at large numbers. It's hard to wrap our minds around something of that scale. We're wired to think locally and linearly, not exponentially (it's one of the reasons I love AI so much). Here are a couple of ways to help you understand a trillion dollars. 

via AskOpinion

First, let's look at spending over time. If you were to spend a dollar every second for an entire day, you would spend $86,400 per day. If you have a million dollars, you can do that for approximately twelve days. With a billion dollars, you can do that for over 31 years. With a trillion dollars, you can do that for 31,000+ years. That means it would take over 300 thousand years to spend the global public debt at that rate. 

I'm sure many of you make over six figures a year. But, it would still take you 10 million years - if you spent none of it - to make $1 trillion, let alone $100 trillion. 

Let's try explaining it through time. Fifty thousand seconds is just under 14 hours. A million seconds was 11 days ago. A billion seconds ago from today? 1992. One trillion seconds is slightly over 31,688 years. That would have been around 29,679 B.C., which is roughly 24,000 years before the earliest civilizations began to take shape. Pretty crazy. 

Here's a video from the 1970s that helps you understand scale through the power of tens and an exploration of our universe. 

Eames Office via BetterExplained

Hopefully, that was disturbing and helpful!

Futurism and The Epidemic of Impossible Statistics

I can’t pretend this is a new phenomenon, but I also can’t pretend it’s not becoming a pet peeve of mine. 

If you’ve been following me for any amount of time, you’ll know I love the future, and I love random statistics. If I’m not talking about AI or entrepreneurship, it’s generally because I’m sharing some interesting chart or statistic. 

At the intersection of my two loves comes a pretty severe issue ...

Bullshit statistics. 

Futurists can’t help themselves. If you repeat something enough times, it begins to feel true. This is a key part of the reality distortion field that surrounds charismatic leaders. Their “functional fiction” becomes useful - not because it’s grounded in fact, but because it enables us to envision what’s possible and work to make it real.

In their defense, nobody minds if you talk about the future broadly. However, a problem arises when directional belief masquerades as fact or science. For example, if someone has thought about something many times, there is a tendency to confidently discuss or project exponential growth with specific timelines and metrics (rather than broadly discussing what will eventually come).

This tendency can make intelligent people seem delusional (or at least out of touch).

Elon Musk is a great example. While he has undeniably been a significant force for innovation and progress in the world, here are a few of the outlandish claims he’s made recently.

• “I think by 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people.”
• “I feel comfortable saying that AI is getting 10 times better each year.”
• Or, his 70% chance of moving to Mars, and his expectation of colonization starting in 2029.

Some of those may be true, and all of them might turn out to be right ... but they are still wild-ass guesses.

Elon is by no means the only one doing this. 

I routinely make up statistics to help me simplify or understand things better. The key is to acknowledge these “shortcuts” are still essentially educated guesses. Here’s an example. When I imagine how advanced AI will become by the end of my lifetime, I have to consider my current age (and expected lifespan) and how rapidly AI is improving. If I assign the number “100” to how good AI will be at the end of my life, what value would I assign to it now? Turns out, I’d give it a value of three. Of course, there’s always the possibility I could get hit by a bus tomorrow. I’m not a scientist. I haven’t done detailed research about chips or when we move to quantum computing. Realistically, I don’t have to. The precise numbers aren’t what matters here. I don’t take that statistic literally. It’s directional, and it gives a sense of the rate of change and the velocity of invention. In that sense, even though it isn’t factual, it’s useful.

I’d say any serious scientist knows that you can’t reliably predict the future with that level of precision – but it doesn’t take a scientist to know that. 

First, the statistic or shortcut has to pass a simple “sniff” test. Then, you have to account for likely bottlenecks or constraints. Too many of these crazy estimates assume almost infinitely scaling results with no setbacks or limitations in materials or energy. 

Don’t underestimate the value of a good rule-of-thumb or mental model. Moore’s Law is a great example of that. It stemmed from an observation and prediction about the semiconductor industry made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965. A grossly simplified version is that computing power doubles every two years. That has held true for more than 50 years.

I have two Gaping Void illustrations that express fundamental truths about this: “First, Bring Order to Chaos” and “Wisdom Comes from Finer Distinctions.”

Here’s the reality. The future is exciting ... and it’s coming fast. In many ways, it will likely be bigger and cooler than you could have imagined. In other ways, it will radically underperform your expectations. 

I can say that not because I know any more than you, but because I’m focused on what doesn’t change. We’ve had many periods of innovation ... each bigger than the last. It’s likely there will be aspects of the next 20 years no one can predict. But, we know what innovation looks like. 

We’ve been here before. 

As a reminder, if it sounds too good to be true ... there’s a good chance it is. Yet, to pretend there’s not a chance outlandish claims will come true would be to make too precise a claim again. 

In many ways, predicting how your business or product will change is much easier than how the world will change.

The best way to predict the future is to create it - and the most effective way to create it is to focus on the elements within your control.

While it’s important to play an exponential game ... you can start “locally”. 

Food for thought! 

Visualizing The American Dream in 2024

I’m a baby boomer.

I got married young and was done having kids by the time I was 30. I've owned a home since the mid-1980s (when I was in my 20s).

The world is different for young adults today.

My youngest son is engaged and starting the next era of his life. But the world looks very different to him than it did to me from that perspective.

When he wrote the first draft of this article, I was a little confused.  Why does it matter? Would our audience care? Then I remembered how important it is to be able to see things from different perspectives and understand the minds and motivations of others.

People don’t tend to do things that they don’t believe are possible. How does the current “reality“ of the world and their life-view impact the definition annd pursuit of the “American Dream” for them?

It's not news to any of you that the cost of living is rising. 

It always has been. 

Unfortunately, the rising cost of living is juxtaposed with 50 years of wage stagnation. 

Income inequality and middle-class living standards are a focus of both party's political agendas but can be pretty abstract. 

VisualCapitalist put together a chart on the cost of the American Dream that I think is interesting. 

via visualcapitalist

On top of stagnant wages, you have a limited supply of homes, an increasing cost of raising kids, and a generation that doesn't feel comfortable planning the next stage of their lives. 

Today, the total cost of the American dream is approximately $4.4 million, exceeding the average lifetime salaries of men and women - at $3.3M and $2.4M respectively. 

 77% of U.S. households are unable to afford a median-priced home. 

And fertility rates in America are at all-time lows, with over 36% citing affordability as a major factor. 

While some are hopeful that the next 4 years will change some of this, it's likely broader changes and bipartisan support are necessary to reverse this trend. 

What do you think would have the biggest impact on making the American Dream affordable? Or, perhaps a better question … How will the American Dream change, and what are the implications of that?

Let me know what you think.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 17th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Eric Schmidt Says There's 'No Evidence' AI Scaling Laws are Stopping — But They Will Eventually. (Insider)
• What If AI Doesn’t Just Keep Getting Better Forever? (ArsTechnica)
• 5 ChatGPT Prompts You Can Use to Understand Yourself Better. (TomsGuide)
• 20 Habits to Reverse Your Biological Age, Starting Today. (CamilleStyles)
• Cathie Wood Says Elon Musk Will Succeed in His Audit of the Federal Government Because He Has ‘More Proprietary Data’ Than Anyone. (Fortune)

 

Trading Links:

• 60 Million Households Watched the Tyson vs. Paul Fight on Netflix. (TheVerge)
• X Sees Largest User Exodus Since Musk Takeover. (NBCNews)
• The Dark Side of AI: What Enterprises Fear the Most in 2024. (Forbes)
• OpenAI Proposes US-Led AI Alliance to Counter China's Influence. (Particle)
• Delhi to San Francisco in Just 40 Minutes? Elon Musk’s SpaceX Could Make It Happen After Trump's Victory. (Reuters)

 

 

Part 2: Using ChatGPT's Advanced Voice Capabilities to Draft a Blog Post on Exponential Technologies

In part 1 of this post, I played around with ChatGPT’s new Advanced Voice Mode. I used it to create an article with essentially no editing, showing how quick and easy using the tool was. This time, I’ll redo that process, emphasizing the prompts used to interact with the AI. Then, I will add some additional prompts to refine the writing. Creating an article this way was dramatically quicker and easier than our typical process. And it’s pretty surprising to see the level of quality content that you can produce with the current state of the technology and relatively minimal effort.

This image was created using X’s Grok AI to pair with this article.

What follows is the transcript from my chat with Advanced Voice Mode, with only light editing and formatting to provide better insight into the process and its outputs.

 

“I want to write an article about how exponential technology will change life and business. Can you ask me questions until you have enough information to create an outline? And then I’ll give you some other topics, and you can ask me more questions until you have enough time to write the article.”

00:22

Great, let’s dive in! First, for the article on exponential technology, could you share what specific areas of life and business you want to focus on? Are there any particular technologies or industries you find most intriguing? This will help shape the direction of the outline.

“Yeah, I am the CEO of an AI platform company, and I tend to communicate with entrepreneurs, senior executives, and investors, and I’m primarily talking about AI.”

00:15

Great, focusing on AI makes a lot of sense given your background. Let’s narrow it down further. Are you interested in exploring how AI impacts specific industries, like finance or digital media? Or would you rather discuss broader themes, such as AI’s role in transforming business operations, customer experiences, or decision-making processes?

“It started in areas like finance and digital media, but it will impact broader areas.”

00:12

Great point! We can explore how AI began transforming finance and digital media and is now set to revolutionize various other sectors. We could highlight emerging trends and future possibilities in healthcare, education, retail, and more. How does that sound for the article’s direction?

“Sounds fine, but I also want to discuss how it will change everything. AI isn’t just another technological advancement; it’s a fundamental shift transforming the very fabric of our lives. It’s something different ... because it’s no longer just about the technology itself, but the adoption and what it creates and makes possible.”

00:16

Absolutely, AI’s impact hinges on how it’s adopted across industries and societies. It’s this integration into daily life and business that will truly redefine our future. Should we explore examples of this adoption and its potential to change everything?

“Yeah, and I think we ought to talk about how fast OpenAI got ChatGPT to a million users, and then to a hundred million users ... and the fact that it’s not only that the users are playing with the technology, it’s that the companies now have data about what people are trying to do and what they’re having challenges doing, and it’s literally giving them a roadmap of how to eliminate constraints faster and create what comes next at unprecedented speed and rates of change.”

00:21

The rapid adoption of ChatGPT highlights not just public interest, but also the potential for businesses to harness user data. This provides invaluable insights into user needs and pain points, effectively offering a roadmap for innovation. Shall we delve into how this data-driven approach is reshaping business strategies?

“Yes, and let’s do that at a high level and then pose a challenge to the user saying, you don’t have to figure out how to use the current state of technology today ... It’s more important for you to build the muscle about thinking about how tools like this are going to help you build what you want to create for tomorrow.”

00:22

That’s a powerful perspective. Let’s summarize the high-level implications of AI adoption and then challenge readers to think beyond current capabilities. By building a mindset geared towards leveraging AI for future opportunities, they’ll be better positioned to innovate and stay ahead in a rapidly changing landscape.

“I think that’s great. On a separate note, not related to the article, can you speed your voice up by like 0.25?”

00:10

Sure, I can do that. How does this sound?

“I also need you to increase the delay when you’re waiting for me to talk, because I’m someone who thinks and then talks. But I want you to talk a little bit faster like that, and that will seem much more natural for me when brainstorming.”

00:18

Got it! I’ll speak a bit faster and give you more time to think before jumping in. Let’s keep the brainstorming going. What other topics are on your mind for articles?

“I think that agentic processes are poised for the next big wave of innovation. And as much as everybody’s going to start to hear about it, it’s going to follow Gartner’s hype cycle, where we’re going to create inflated expectations and excitement ... but then have a trough of disillusionment as people find that it’s harder to do than they expected. As a practical aside, my company has created an autonomous trading system. In the beginning, we thought it was about trading better ... but it’s really about figuring out the myriad of ways that life gets in the way – from power failures, internet outages, fires in the server room, and geopolitical events. But the real issue is figuring out how to make something work reliably even in the face of errors, competition, mistakes, and bad luck.”

00:50

That’s a fascinating shift in perspective. It really underscores the importance of resilience and adaptability in AI systems. Do you think exploring these real-world challenges in an article could offer valuable insights for others in the tech industry? It seems like it could be a great way to share your expertise.

“Yeah, I just think we have to do that somewhat superficially, so that they think about some of the challenges but then realize that the right thing to do is partner with somebody who’s already figured it out.”

00:14

That’s a smart approach. You can introduce the complexities of implementing AI, just enough to highlight the challenges, and then pivot to the value of partnering with experts who have navigated these obstacles. This could position your company as a trusted guide in the AI landscape. How does that sound as a direction for your article?

“It sounds good. However, you’ve gone back to speaking slowly again. I don’t know if some human is reading the transcript, but you were doing great, and now you’re back to your original pace.”

00:19

I’ll keep the pace up. It sounds like you’re all set. What else would you like to cover?

“That Natural Language Processing has become a key component of AI innovation. It’s amazing how it’s changing how humans interact with computers or access AI capabilities. It used to be that you needed to be good at prompt engineering, but companies like OpenAI have figured out how to interpret simple requests and build a more detailed prompt behind the scenes, so you’re still getting the benefit of prompt engineering without having to become an expert at it yourself. A simple example is the difference between the response to a prompt simply consisting of the word “Improve – and (then a sentence)” six months ago, versus what you’ll get today. And the same is true for a simple image prompt. The result you would have gotten six months ago is vastly different than what you’ll get today because the tools and technologies and multimodal capabilities are working together beneath the surface to create a much more robust and resilient and capable answer engine.”

01:06

That’s a great observation. The evolution of AI is making it more accessible, allowing users to focus on their needs rather than the technicalities. This progress opens up new opportunities for innovation and creativity, as users can leverage AI’s capabilities more efficiently, effectively, and easily.

“OK, do you have enough information to create a basic outline?”

00:04

Absolutely! Here’s a basic outline for your article:

 

Title: Navigating the AI Revolution: From Exponential Technology to Practical Applications

I. Introduction

• The rapid growth of AI and its transformative impact on life and business.
• Brief overview of AI’s origins in industries like finance and digital media.

II. Exponential Technology in Business

• How AI is revolutionizing various sectors, including healthcare, education, and retail.
• AI’s role in reshaping business operations, customer experiences, and decision-making.

III. The Role of Natural Language Processing (NLP)

• The evolution of NLP in making AI more user-friendly.
• How companies like OpenAI simplify complex requests, enhancing user experience.

IV. Real-World Challenges and Resilience in AI

• Introduction to the challenges of implementing AI systems, using autonomous trading as an example.
• The importance of resilience and adaptability in AI, focusing on overcoming real-world obstacles.

V. Data-Driven Innovation

• How user data from AI applications provides insights for

 

“Your outline is fine. Please generate a rough draft. Please use some quotes, headlines, subheads, and bullets. I like structure in the article. And please end with a conclusion.”

00:17

Absolutely. Here’s a rough draft with the structure and formatting you requested.

 

Note: The entire conversation with ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Mode occurred during a casual neighborhood walk lasting 10-15 minutes. I made no effort to rush the process - it was simply a natural dialogue with my handphone that concluded before I returned home. At this point, ChatGPT generated a draft of the article that was okay, but similar to last time. It didn’t really reflect our style to the level that would make us happy. So, I asked ChatGPT to rewrite the draft using my voice, tone, and style. To accomplish this, I provided five examples of previous articles and instructed it to analyze the voice, tone, and style ... and to generate a prompt that mimics those characteristics. I then returned to the original conversation where ChatGPT had provided its draft and requested it to rewrite the content with those instructions. Here is the output.

 

Navigating the AI Revolution: Bridging Exponential Technology with Practical Application

Imagine a world where artificial intelligence, once the stuff of sci-fi dreams, shapes the foundations of our daily lives and businesses. What began as a tool in niche sectors like finance and digital media now pulses through healthcare, education, and retail, each industry redefining its approach to productivity, decision-making, and even creativity. Yet, while AI’s exponential growth makes headlines, the real story often lies in the complex journey of making these systems resilient and truly reliable on a large scale.

This image was created using X’s Grok AI to pair with this article.

AI’s potential doesn’t just come from its incredible computational speed; it’s about adaptability—learning as it goes. Think of the impact it’s having in healthcare, where AI diagnoses diseases earlier and personalizes treatments, or in retail, where it sharpens customer experiences with laser-focused recommendations. But here’s the catch: many businesses hit roadblocks when trying to bring this transformative technology into their workflows. Moving from promise to practice takes more than powerful algorithms. It takes a strategy that integrates AI into every part of an organization, backed by a collaborative culture and a solid tech infrastructure to handle the unique demands AI brings.

Natural Language Processing: A Giant Leap Forward

One of the most accessible advancements in AI is natural language processing (NLP). You no longer need a deep technical background to generate impactful results. Companies like OpenAI have unlocked the potential for anyone to leverage complex technology without getting bogged down in the intricacies of prompt engineering. By transforming simple requests into nuanced responses, NLP democratizes technology—empowering business users, entrepreneurs, and consumers alike to harness AI for content creation, strategic analysis, and decision-making.

Real-World Resilience: AI’s Practical Challenges

Despite its transformative promise, deploying AI in the real world is not yet a plug-and-play endeavor. Take autonomous trading systems as an example. While initially focused on optimizing trading strategies, it became clear that the real mission was building resilience against the unpredictable: power outages, unstable internet, server issues, and even geopolitical shifts that could halt operations in an instant. Making AI that doesn’t just perform but thrives in an unpredictable world calls for a fundamental shift in thinking—from optimizing a single outcome to building systems that can handle whatever comes their way.

At its core, AI transforms raw data into actionable insights. For companies, this translates into deeper customer insights, trend forecasting, and optimizing operations on a grand scale. But here’s the challenge: it’s not just about amassing data but about pulling the right insights while respecting user privacy and regulatory requirements.

Those companies that can weave AI seamlessly into their processes—and keep the trust of their users—will lead the charge in this data-driven revolution.

Conclusion: Moving from Exponential to Essential

As AI advances from a cutting-edge tool to an essential part of business strategy, success will hinge not on speed but on the quality of execution. It’s about embedding resilience, enhancing user experience, and remaining ethically grounded. Companies that bring a clear vision and long-term adaptability to AI adoption will find themselves ahead, not just capitalizing on its transformative potential but building a future where AI becomes a natural, reliable partner in progress.

 

At that point, ChatGPT said:

Let me know if you’d like any adjustments! This draft keeps the original article’s structure and depth while incorporating your reflective, future-oriented tone and approachable insights.

 

Breaking The Fourth Wall

Hopefully, it wasn’t too confusing to read the transcripts and the article. In this section, I’ll discuss the experience and what I want to improve.

Ultimately, even after asking ChatGPT to rewrite the article, it doesn’t feel exactly like something I wrote. Yes, it was objectively better - cleaner, more structured, more polished. Yet it wasn’t quite “me.”

Better isn’t always good enough.

But here’s the real insight: This “almost but not quite” result might be what we need in the age of AI-assisted content creation. Think of it as a high-quality first draft that gives you a massive head start. Instead of staring at a blank page, you’re starting with something substantial that just needs your unique touch.

To be fair, I could have easily gotten closer to the intended target with just a few more prompts.

In addition, I could easily train an AI in-depth on my voice and writing style. Frankly, I should do that.

In the old days, we relied on style guides. With today’s level of AI, you can create custom AI prompts to transform base content into audience-specific communications. This opens up an intriguing possibility for businesses. The implications for scaling high-quality, consistent content are significant.

Or, I could practice what I preach and use this as the base primer to write something better. This article demonstrates the power of that hybrid approach. Some parts detail the AI’s contribution, while others share strategic insights and personal perspectives. Together, they create something more valuable than humans or machines can produce alone.

If you genuinely enjoy writing, AI shouldn’t be your replacement - it should be your amplifier, enhancing and multiplying what makes your writing uniquely yours.

As much as that’s true, sometimes you just have to produce decent-quality output. This process certainly did that, and there are plenty of simple add-ons that can elevate the quality from merely acceptable to genuinely good.

Even though I didn’t want to use another tool (because of the premise of this article), I pasted the article into a tool called Type (which is similar to Lex). Both are AI document editors that speed up and simplify the writing process. Type gave me these options, each of which would have improved the article.

• Improve: Remove clichés, fix errors, and improve transitions.

• Fix Errors: Fix grammar and spelling errors.

• Shorten: Remove fluff and simplify lengthy phrases.

• Enhance Structure and Formatting: Make things easier to skim and read.

Additionally, Type has a cool feature that analyzes your document and suggests things to incorporate at specific points. It can generate sentences, lists, and paragraphs directly at your cursor as you write. It also can help you find the perfect idea with real-time suggestions. Type analyzes your writing to identify opportunities to expand or improve it. When you like a suggestion, Type’s writing AI can write it out and insert it into your document.

Here are some of the suggestions it had for the “Navigating the AI Revolution” article.

• Highlight successful case studies of companies that have effectively integrated AI.

• Include specific metrics and ROl examples from Al implementations.

• Outline the necessary steps for businesses to begin their Al transformation journey.

• Describe the role of human oversight and the balance between automation and human judgment.

• Explore the future implications of Al on workforce development and job markets.

• Discuss the importance of cross-functional teams in Al implementations.

• Address cybersecurity concerns and protective measures when deploying Al systems.

It’s like having a team of grammar, style, story, and industry-specific knowledge specialists. You can brainstorm and examine issues from multiple angles to incrementally improve your base product and transform it into something worth saving and sharing.

In conclusion, I spent more time crafting the intro and conclusion than writing the base article with ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Mode.

When I first started playing with AI tools, I hoped they could improve my writing. Now, I realize they’re already so capable and powerful that they are changing how I write and even how I think about writing.

In business, I often say you don’t want to be the bottleneck or limit of how good things can be. With tools like these, that’s true with writing as well. The limits of your initial thinking or knowledge no longer constrain the upper limit of what you can produce.

For executives and teams looking to stay ahead, the question isn’t whether to use AI in content creation - it’s how to use it most effectively while maintaining your authentic voice. The leaders who crack this code first will have a significant competitive advantage.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this article or how you are using AI.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 10th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What Donald Trump Can Learn from Steve Jobs. (Wall Street Journal)
• Find Out What ChatGPT Knows About You: 5 Prompts for Instant Answers. (Forbes)
• The Evolutionary Benefits of Being Forgetful. (TheConversation)
• Archeologists Find Massive 3,000-Year-Old Biblical Structure in Jerusalem. (TheBrighterSide)
• Aliens are Breaking the Laws of Physics to Visit Us on Earth, New Theory Claims. (PopularMechanics)

 

Trading Links:

• ChatGPT Monthly Usage May Now Rival Google Chrome. (DigitalTrends)
• Meta: AI Killed the Video Star – From Content Creators to an AI-Driven Feed. (AppEconomyInsights)
• Why AI Isn’t Enough to Beat the Competition. (HBR)
• Stores Don't Sell Your Favorite Product Anymore. That's on Purpose. (CNN)
• How Did U.S. Voter Turnout Compare to Turnout In Other Countries? (Foreign Policy)

How do U.S. States Compare to Entire Countries?

With Trump's election win, the economy will likely be center stage. 

Crypto boomed post-election, and the S&P and the Nasdaq reached new highs as the Fed cut rates. 

Amidst all the political turmoil, it's easy to overlook how well-positioned we are as a country – compared to the rest of the world. 

VisualCapitalist created a chart comparing countries' GDPs to those of U.S. states. 

 

via visualcapitalist 

At the top of the list, California would be the world's fifth-largest country (replacing India) with its $3.9 Trillion GDP. 

In second place on the list, my home state, Texas, had a $2.6 Trillion GDP. For a little more context:

• If Texas were a country, its GDP would fall just behind France ($3.1 Trillion) and above Brazil and Italy ($2.3 Trillion).
• The Texas GDP is also higher than Canada's $2.24 Trillion GDP.

For a bit of contrast (and extra perspective), Vermont has the lowest GDP in America, comparable to Nepal, which is the world's 101st-largest economy. Yet, Nepal has 29 times more people than Vermont. 

Not too shabby for a place where dairy, forestry, and maple syrup drive the economy.

Why I'm Still Excited About The Future of GPTs as a 20+ Year AI CEO

Last week, I explained how to create content by simply talking to your computer using ChatGPT's new voice interface. In that post, I multi-tasked in a whole new way by writing the article by merely talking with ChatGPT while walking around my neighborhood to get some fresh air and "exercise."

In that article, I shared my conversation along with the end result - a quick and dirty article about the applications of AI voice agents. I didn't edit the article the way I usually would, but that was intentional to demonstrate what it could create on its own. My evaluation was that it produced content that met the minimum standard and provided a great starting point for me to enhance.

Next week, I'll redo that process, emphasizing the prompts used to interact with the AI. I also used some additional prompts to refine the writing.

As I find new tools, prompts, and applications, I can't help but share them with the people around me. Technology has always excited me and given me energy.

Meanwhile, as I share these tools and prompts with my son, Zach, it's clear he's not as excited as I am about them. For context, Zach and I work on these articles together. So, when I find a new writing tool that I think will make our lives easier, I'm quick to share it.

This past week, I shared some prompts with him that I thought were profound (because they were simple – but produced useful productive output). Through simple prompts and appropriate context settings, we can now get ChatGPT (or other tools like Gemini, Claude, or Perplexity) to perform functions a small business may not have internally. For example, a company could use AI as a comptroller or product manager. It can also help create reports and summarize meetings better than my assistant or I would.

 

Zach acknowledged the utility of capabilities like these ... but described them as 'pedestrian.' He was unimpressed because, in his eyes, these were capabilities that were already possible early into the public release of ChatGPT.

He does appreciate more specific use cases for generative AI – but focuses more heavily on apps with a singular utility. For example, he likes a writing app called Lex, which works more like a standard Word Processor (but with several nicely done AI assists) ... or the Hemmingway Editor app, which helps make your writing concise and correct (by suggesting fixes for lengthy, complex sentences, and common errors).

Instead of focusing on the new generality & ubiquity - and automating tasks outside his wheelhouse - he gets excited about supplementing his ability or improving his efficiency.

His lack of excitement helped me understand more why I'm excited.

Since the '90s, I've been fascinated by AI. For much of that time, two types of people shared my excitement. The first was Hollywood executives, who created cliché dystopian depictions to perpetuate a false human vs AI dichotomy (think The Terminator, I, Robot, or 2001: A Space Odyssey). The other were other people like me. Entrepreneurs or academics looking to leverage exponential technologies.

The average person had very little practical exposure to AI outside of the hidden-in-plain-sight applications that were often glorified decision logic. Eventually, you got tools like Siri or Alexa that put it into everyone's home.

My son takes for granted that even when ChatGPT grew popular, using it well took expertise. You had to be clever, deliberate, and patient to get results that weren't verbose garbage.

AI is genuinely becoming not just available but accessible.

Three great examples are Letterly, Talktastic, and Rosebud Journal.

Letterly is an application that allows me to dictate whatever I'm thinking. It runs a process behind the scenes to organize and clean up disorganized text. Then it gives me dozens of rewrite options that allow me to choose the tone (Business, Casual, Friendly, Clear and Concise, etc.), the purpose (Email, Social Post, Journal Entry, etc.), and the type of output (Structured, 2X Shorter, Meeting Takeaways, Detailed Summary, Outline, etc.). It sounds much more complicated than it really is. The primary reason that I like it is that it's so simple that I take it for granted. 

Another tool like that is Talktastic. For short burst dictation, TalkTastic is better than speech recognition tools (like ChatGPT, OpenAI Whisper, Google Speech-to-Text, or Apple Dictation). It is a game changer because it interprets what you're saying based on what it sees on your computer screen, regardless of the app or website. That means when you trigger it to run, TalkTastic analyzes a snapshot of your chosen app and automatically understands your conversation's tone, style, and substance while accurately spelling people's names and easily confused words. So you can turn your rough ideas into thoughtful and articulate language everywhere. I use it dozens of times every day to create short messages, emails, and even some of the sentences in an article like this. Currently, Taltastic only works on macOS devices (and is totally free while in beta).

Rosebud is a journalling app reimagined to incorporate AI in many subtle and clever ways. I've been tempted to journal many times throughout my career, but always found reasons to abandon the practice. That's not true anymore. Rosebud's AI journal has fundamentally changed how I look at and use tools like this. Chatting with AI tools is one thing (I wrote about that in a post called Conversing With AI), but Rosebud is a level beyond even that. It has all the benefits of a traditional journal, but it adds intelligent responses, subtle prompts, and reminders to think about certain things. It's interactive and collaborative. It challenges you to re-examine certain beliefs, set goals, or measure success in different ways. Try it!

Each of these tools is a great example of something you quickly take for granted because it's easy to get used to nice things.

Expect a lot more things like that.

Isn't that exciting?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 3rd, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Trump and Harris Use Psychology to Drive Turn Out: ‘Perception is Reality’.(WashingtonExaminer)
• Harris or Trump? the Psychology Behind How Voters Choose a Candidate. (Yahoo)
• Who Has the Highest IQ in the World in 2024? (ScienceFocus)
• Do You Have a Twin Stranger? the Surprising Science Behind Doppelgängers.(NationalGeographic)
• Mathematicians Debunk Infinite Monkey Theorem – They Will Never Type Shakespeare.(Particle)

 

Trading Links:

• Perplexity Launches an Elections Tracker. (TechCrunch)
• Nvidia Set to Replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (Bloomberg)
• 💻 Microsoft Trading at Over 30 Times Next Year's Earnings. (AppEconomyInsights)
• Meta’s AI Abundance. (Stratechery)
• The Trend Is Your Friend – Broad Bullish Particiaption🧁. (TheSandBox)

The NFL's Halftime Hack

When you think of food meant to help athletes, you might think back to when parents would give orange slices or Gatorade to kids during soccer games. Now, fast forward your thinking to the best options available to fuel today's performance athletes. What do you imagine they would use before or during a game? 

I quickly went to protein bars or energy gels (like GU) ... But, I was wrong.

According to research from The Athletic, The NFL's favorite halftime energy booster is now the uncrustable.

What is that? An "uncrustable" is a crustless sandwich consisting of a filling between two layers of crimp-sealed bread. They are convenient, portable, and they tend to come in homey flavors like PB&J. While you can theoretically make one at home, Uncrustables, in this context, are made by Smuckers. 

The Athletic via X 

Based on this math, it's reasonable to assume that NFL teams go through ~4000 Uncrustables a week (on top of however many PB&Js or other sandwiches they consume). Regardless, it is a lot. 

Why the sudden surge in popularity? It's a combination of factors:

• Nostalgia and Comfort: The uncrustable taps into a sense of childhood nostalgia, offering a comforting and familiar taste.
• Nutritional Balance: It provides a balanced blend of carbohydrates for quick energy, fats for sustained power, and protein for recovery.
• Convenience: Pre-packaged and mess-free, uncrustables are perfect for a half-time snack when you have very little time to eat. 

If you think about it, it makes sense. PB&Js are universal. Regardless of geographic region, socioeconomic status, etc. – it's a staple. 

They're easy to digest, convenient, and comforting. Hitting all the marks a professional athlete might be looking for. 

Even in a high-tech world, people still crave simplicity and effectiveness.

I've never had one ... but now I kind of want to try. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure they used to call this a Pop-Tart. But I guess that just makes me seem old.